Universitatea Craiova
vs
Farul Constanta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universitatea Craiova
2 β 0 Predicted score Β· 12% model probability
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta
| Probability | Universitatea Craiova | Draw | Farul Constanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.3% | 18.6% | 10.1% |
| Market | 65.7% | 20.1% | 14.2% |
| Final | 67.1% | 19.8% | 13.2% |
| Edge | +5.6% | -1.5% | -4.1% |
Why Universitatea Craiova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitatea Craiova below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta match preview
Universitatea Craiova enters this match with a strong recent form, having won three of their last four games, alongside one draw and one loss. The team's expected goals stand at 2.35, indicating a robust attacking performance. In contrast, Farul Constanta has had a mixed run, with two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches, and an expected goals tally of 0.79, suggesting they may struggle to find the net.
Our model suggests a 67% probability of a Universitatea Craiova victory, with a likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 61%, while both teams scoring is assessed at 50%. In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has secured one victory, adding an intriguing dynamic to this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta attack and defence ratings
Universitatea Craiova
Farul Constanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | 67.1% | 1.49 | +5.6% | 1.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% | 1.99 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win | 49.0% | 2.04 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | 67.1% |
| Draw | 19.8% | |
| Farul Constanta | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% |
| No | 49.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win | 49.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 28.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta stats
Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta recent form
| Universitatea Craiova |
WWWWDL |
| Farul Constanta |
WLWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta season so far
Universitatea Craiova record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Farul Constanta record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Farul Constanta | Universitatea Craiova | Liga I | 4-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Universitatea Craiova | Farul Constanta | Liga I | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.7%, draw 20.1%, away 14.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 4.55 | 7.17 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.45 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.42 | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.55 | 7.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.58 | 6.10 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 3.92 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .