Uta Arad
vs
Petrolul Ploiesti
Garuda Lions Prediction: Uta Arad
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β Uta Arad is the favourite, not a value bet.
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
| Probability | Uta Arad | Draw | Petrolul Ploiesti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.6% | 28.8% | 28.6% |
| Market | 53.2% | 24.7% | 22.1% |
| Final | 50.6% | 25.7% | 23.7% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +1.0% | +1.6% |
Why Uta Arad
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (our 50.6% Γ 1.78 β 1).
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti match preview
Uta Arad hosts Petrolul Ploiesti in an intriguing Liga I matchup. Uta Arad has a 51% probability of winning according to our model, while a draw stands at 26% and Petrolul Ploiesti at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Uta Arad, with an expected goals tally of 1.42 for Uta Arad compared to 1.13 for Petrolul Ploiesti.
In terms of recent form, Uta Arad has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Petrolul Ploiesti has drawn three of their last five games, alongside two wins and one loss. Historically, Uta Arad has dominated their recent encounters, winning six out of the last ten meetings, with Petrolul Ploiesti yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti attack and defence ratings
Uta Arad
Petrolul Ploiesti
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Uta Arad | 50.6% | 1.98 | -2.7% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.4% | 1.74 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Uta Arad | 50.6% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Petrolul Ploiesti | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Uta Arad win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 57.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti stats
Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti recent form
| Uta Arad |
LWWLWL |
| Petrolul Ploiesti |
DWDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti season so far
Uta Arad record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Petrolul Ploiesti record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Uta Arad | Liga I | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-08 | Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti | Cupa RomΓ’niei | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Uta Arad | Liga I | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-05 | Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Uta Arad | Liga I | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-04 | Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-22 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Uta Arad | Liga I | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-07 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Uta Arad | Liga I | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.2%, draw 24.7%, away 22.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.78 | 4.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.78 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.88 | 4.41 |
| SBO | 1.77 | 3.28 | 3.61 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .