Concordia
vs
ASA Targu Mures
5 – 0 Full time
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures
| Probability | Concordia | Draw | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.3% | 17.2% | 13.5% |
| Market | 51.8% | 24.9% | 23.3% |
| Final | 56.2% | 23.0% | 20.8% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -1.9% | -2.4% |
Why Concordia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Concordia below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Concordia and ASA Targu Mures expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.93
Concordia and ASA Targu Mures attack and defence ratings
Concordia
ASA Targu Mures
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures: result vs prediction
Concordia 5 – 0 ASA Targu Mures
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
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Before and after this match
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concordia | 56.2% | 1.78 | +4.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Concordia win | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concordia | 56.2% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| ASA Targu Mures | 20.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Concordia win | 49.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 30.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures stats
Concordia and ASA Targu Mures recent form
| Concordia |
WDWLLW |
| ASA Targu Mures |
LLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Concordia and ASA Targu Mures going into this match
Concordia record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ASA Targu Mures record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | ASA Targu Mures | Concordia | Liga II | 0-0 |
| 2017-05-05 | Concordia | ASA Targu Mures | Liga I | 2-0 |
| 2017-03-18 | ASA Targu Mures | Concordia | Liga I | 2-1 |
| 2016-11-29 | Concordia | ASA Targu Mures | Liga I | 1-2 |
| 2016-08-20 | ASA Targu Mures | Concordia | Liga I | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.8%, draw 24.9%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.52 | 4.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.52 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.64 | 3.78 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .