Al-Hazm
vs
Al-Nassr
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Nassr
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
| Probability | Al-Hazm | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.9% | 18.2% | 67.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 13.9% | 18.2% | 67.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Nassr
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr match preview
Al-Hazm faces Al-Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with kickoff scheduled for November 5, 2026. Al-Hazm has struggled recently, recording a series of results with three losses and two draws in their last six matches. In contrast, Al-Nassr is in strong form, having won five of their last six encounters, with one draw. According to our model, Al-Hazm has a 14% chance of winning, while Al-Nassr stands at 68%.
The expected goals for this match indicate a significant advantage for Al-Nassr, with 2.59 expected goals compared to Al-Hazm's 1.14. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr attack and defence ratings
Al-Hazm
Al-Nassr
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.1% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hazm | 13.9% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Al-Nassr | 67.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 47.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 32.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 0-2 | 8.1% | |
| 1-3 | 7.9% |
Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr stats
Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr season so far
Al-Hazm record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Al-Nassr | Al-Hazm | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Al-Hazm | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.