Abha
vs
Al Shabab
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Shabab
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Abha vs Al Shabab overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Abha vs Al Shabab
| Probability | Abha | Draw | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.1% | 27.6% | 52.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.1% | 27.6% | 52.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al Shabab
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Abha vs Al Shabab match preview
Abha faces Al Shabab in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with kickoff scheduled for November 5, 2026. According to our model, Abha has a 20% chance of winning, while Al Shabab is favored with a 52% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Expected goals for Abha stand at 0.89, contrasting with Al Shabab's 1.58.
Recent form shows Abha struggling with six matches without a win, recording three losses and one draw, while Al Shabab has had a mixed performance with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five games. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals sit at 45%, and both teams to score is at 48%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Abha and Al Shabab expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Abha and Al Shabab attack and defence ratings
Abha
Al Shabab
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Abha vs Al Shabab markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shabab | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Abha | 20.1% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Al Shabab | 52.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shabab win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 47.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 12.2% | |
| 0-2 | 10.5% |
Abha vs Al Shabab stats
Abha and Al Shabab recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Abha and Al Shabab season so far
Abha record
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Shabab record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.