Garuda Lions
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Saudi Arabia Pro League · ·Matchday 9

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab

Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Ittihad FC

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.28.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Ittihad FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Al-Ittihad FC

King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah

Al-Ittihad FC 52%
Draw 23%
Al Shabab 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Al-Ittihad FC wins
52%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
62%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl-Ittihad FCDrawAl Shabab
Model51.1%24.5%24.4%
Market52.5%22.4%25.2%
Final52.1%22.9%25.0%
Edge-0.3%+0.5%-0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Al-Ittihad FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (our 52.1% × 1.84 − 1).

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab match preview

Al-Ittihad FC is favored in their upcoming match against Al Shabab, with a 52% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.05 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.38 for Al Shabab. Recent form shows Al-Ittihad FC performing strongly with four wins in their last six matches, while Al Shabab has struggled, managing only two wins in their last six outings.

The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 61%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 62%. In their last ten encounters, Al-Ittihad FC has secured six victories compared to Al Shabab's three wins, indicating a competitive historical context. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al-Ittihad FC ↓ / Al Shabab → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 7% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab expected goals

Al-Ittihad FC 2.03
Al Shabab 1.28

Total expected goals: 3.31

Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab attack and defence ratings

Al-Ittihad FC

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Al Shabab

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Saudi Arabia Pro League

Before and after this match

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al-Ittihad FC 52.1% 1.92 -0.3% 1.84
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.7% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.6% 1.62 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.1% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.1% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al-Ittihad FC52.1%
Draw22.9%
Al Shabab25.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%
Both teams to scoreYes61.6%
No38.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.0%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)47.9%
Handicap -1Al-Ittihad FC win32.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss46.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.7%
2-07.7%
Compare prices for this pick

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab stats

Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab recent form

newest first
Al-Ittihad FC WWLWWW
Al Shabab WDWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab season so far

league record

Al-Ittihad FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Al Shabab record

  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Al-Ittihad FC wins 1Draws 3Al Shabab wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-17Al ShababAl-Ittihad FCSaudi Arabia Pro League3-2
2025-12-27Al-Ittihad FCAl ShababSaudi Arabia Pro League2-0
2025-11-29Al-Ittihad FCAl ShababKing's Cup4-1
2025-05-20Al ShababAl-Ittihad FCPro League2-3
2025-04-01Al-Ittihad FCAl ShababKing's Cup3-2
2025-01-22Al-Ittihad FCAl ShababPro League2-1
2024-04-26Al-Ittihad FCAl ShababPro League1-3
2023-11-03Al ShababAl-Ittihad FCPro League1-0
2023-04-27Al-Ittihad FCAl ShababPro League2-1
2023-01-09Al ShababAl-Ittihad FCPro League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.5%, draw 22.4%, away 25.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.81 4.10 3.68
Bet365 1.75 3.70 3.60
Betano 1.80 4.25 3.85
Betfair 1.75 4.20 3.75
Dafabet 1.84 4.10 3.80
Marathonbet 1.73 3.92 3.52
Pinnacle 1.81 4.12 3.65
SBO 1.69 3.56 3.39
William Hill 1.75 3.70 3.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▼ -0.14
X 4.10 ▲ +0.10
2 3.65 ▲ +0.24

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Al-Ittihad FC Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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