Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
Al-Nassr
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Ahli Jeddah
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
| Probability | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.1% | 23.7% | 35.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.1% | 23.7% | 35.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr match preview
Al-Ahli Jeddah faces Al-Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Pro League on October 15, 2026. According to our model, Al-Ahli Jeddah has a 42% probability of winning, while Al-Nassr stands at 35%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Al-Ahli Jeddah, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Al-Ahli Jeddah has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Al-Nassr has been more consistent, with four wins and two draws. The expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.88, compared to Al-Nassr's 1.72, indicating a closely contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr attack and defence ratings
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Nassr
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 41.1% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Al-Nassr | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% |
| No | 29.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr stats
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr recent form
| Al-Ahli Jeddah |
WWLWLL |
| Al-Nassr |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr season so far
Al-Ahli Jeddah record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.