Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
Al-Nassr
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Nassr
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Nassr is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
| Probability | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.4% | 24.5% | 34.1% |
| Market | 30.4% | 25.1% | 44.5% |
| Final | 33.1% | 25.0% | 41.9% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.2% | -2.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.6% per unit staked (our 41.9% × 2.11 − 1).
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr match preview
Al-Ahli Jeddah will face Al-Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with kickoff scheduled for March 6, 2027. According to our model, Al-Ahli Jeddah has a 33% chance of winning, while Al-Nassr is favored at 42%, and the probability of a draw stands at 25%. The expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah is 1.71, compared to Al-Nassr's 1.64. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability.
In terms of recent form, Al-Ahli Jeddah has recorded three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Al-Nassr has achieved four wins, one draw, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Al-Ahli Jeddah with one win, three draws, and Al-Nassr with six victories. Our model indicates a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.14
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr attack and defence ratings
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Nassr
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 41.9% | 2.39 | -2.6% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 33.1% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Al-Nassr | 41.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% |
| No | 32.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 67.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr stats
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr recent form
| Al-Ahli Jeddah |
WWWWLW |
| Al-Nassr |
WWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr season so far
Al-Ahli Jeddah record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Super Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-13 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Nassr | Pro League | 2-3 |
| 2024-09-13 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-15 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Nassr | Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-22 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League | 4-3 |
| 2022-05-28 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2021-11-26 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Nassr | Pro League | 1-2 |
| 2021-03-11 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Nassr | Pro League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.4%, draw 25.1%, away 44.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 3.74 | 2.09 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.11 |
| Marathonbet | 2.95 | 3.58 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 3.74 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 2.89 | 3.28 | 1.92 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .