Al-Nassr
vs
Al Kholood
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Nassr
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
| Probability | Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.1% | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 74.1% | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Nassr
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood match preview
Al-Nassr enters the match against Al Kholood with a strong probability of winning at 73%, while Al Kholood has a 10% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood. Al-Nassr's expected goals stand at 2.47, significantly higher than Al Kholood's 0.83. Recent form shows Al-Nassr with three wins in their last five matches, while Al Kholood has experienced three losses in their last five outings.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 52% chance of scoring. Historically, Al-Nassr has dominated their recent encounters with Al Kholood, winning both of the last two meetings. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Nassr and Al Kholood expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Al-Nassr and Al Kholood attack and defence ratings
Al-Nassr
Al Kholood
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 74.1% |
| Draw | 16.6% | |
| Al Kholood | 9.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 53.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 25.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.7% |
| 3-0 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood stats
Al-Nassr and Al Kholood recent form
| Al-Nassr |
WWWDWL |
| Al Kholood |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Nassr and Al Kholood season so far
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Kholood record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Al Kholood | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Al-Nassr | Al Kholood | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.