Al-Faisaly FC
vs
Al-Nassr
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Nassr
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr
| Probability | Al-Faisaly FC | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.6% | 20.7% | 65.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 13.6% | 20.7% | 65.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Nassr
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr match preview
Al-Faisaly FC faces Al-Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with the model giving Al-Faisaly a 14% chance of winning, while Al-Nassr is favored at 66%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, occurring at an 11% probability. Al-Faisaly's expected goals stand at 0.93, contrasting with Al-Nassr's 2.22, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the visitors.
Recent form shows Al-Faisaly FC with a record of W-L-D-D-L-D, while Al-Nassr has performed better with W-D-W-L-W-W. The model suggests a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for a high-scoring match. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr attack and defence ratings
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Nassr
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Faisaly FC | 13.6% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Al-Nassr | 65.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 43.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.7% |
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr stats
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr recent form
| Al-Faisaly FC |
WLDDLD |
| Al-Nassr |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr season so far
Al-Faisaly FC record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.