Al-Fateh
vs
Al Shabab
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Shabab
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
| Probability | Al-Fateh | Draw | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.3% | 28.4% | 42.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 29.3% | 28.4% | 42.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab match preview
Al-Fateh faces Al Shabab in the Saudi Arabia Pro League with a kickoff scheduled for October 22, 2026. According to our model, Al-Fateh has a 24% chance of winning, while Al Shabab is favored at 46%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a probability of 12%. Both teams have shown inconsistent form recently, with Al-Fateh recording three losses and three draws in their last six matches, while Al Shabab has two wins, two draws, and two losses.
In terms of expected goals, Al-Fateh is projected to score 0.94, while Al Shabab is expected to net 1.40. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 42%, and the probability of both teams scoring stands at 47%. The head-to-head record shows Al-Fateh with one win and one draw against Al Shabab in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Al-Fateh and Al Shabab attack and defence ratings
Al-Fateh
Al Shabab
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shabab | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fateh | 29.3% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Al Shabab | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shabab win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab stats
Al-Fateh and Al Shabab recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Fateh and Al Shabab season so far
Al-Fateh record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Al Shabab record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Al Shabab | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Al-Fateh | Al Shabab | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.