Al-Hilal Saudi FC
vs
Al-Fateh
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.25 vs 0.75.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Hilal Saudi FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh
| Probability | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Draw | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84.4% | 10.8% | 4.8% |
| Market | 88.2% | 7.8% | 4.1% |
| Final | 87.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +0.7% | +0.2% |
Why Al-Hilal Saudi FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.25 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 87.2% × 1.09 − 1).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh match preview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC enters this match with a strong probability of victory at 84%, reflecting their recent form of four wins and one loss in the last six matches. The team is expected to score an average of 3.25 goals, with a most likely scoreline of 3-0, which has a 10% likelihood. In contrast, Al-Fateh has struggled recently, with six matches resulting in five losses and only one win.
The model predicts a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, indicating a high-scoring affair. Al-Fateh is forecasted to score only 0.75 goals, suggesting they may find it challenging to breach Al-Hilal's defense. In their last two encounters, Al-Hilal has secured two wins against Al-Fateh, further emphasizing their dominance in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh attack and defence ratings
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Fateh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 87.2% | 1.15 | -0.9% | 1.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.8% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 87.2% |
| Draw | 8.5% | |
| Al-Fateh | 4.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 91.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 12.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win | 68.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.4% | |
| Loss | 15.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 10.5% |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | |
| 4-0 | 8.5% |
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh stats
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh recent form
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
WWWWLW |
| Al-Fateh |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh season so far
Al-Hilal Saudi FC record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al-Fateh record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Al-Fateh | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 88.2%, draw 7.8%, away 4.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.03 | 15.50 | 26.00 |
| Betano | 1.09 | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.03 | 10.75 | 18.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.07 | 13.12 | 16.24 |
| William Hill | 1.06 | 12.00 | 23.00 |