Al Diriyah
vs
NEOM
Garuda Lions Prediction: NEOM
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Al Diriyah vs NEOM overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Diriyah vs NEOM
| Probability | Al Diriyah | Draw | NEOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.6% | 35.1% | 39.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.6% | 35.1% | 39.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why NEOM
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Al Diriyah vs NEOM match preview
Al Diriyah and NEOM are set to clash in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with kickoff scheduled for October 30, 2026. According to our model, Al Diriyah has a 30% chance of winning, while both a draw and a NEOM victory are assessed at 35%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-0, with an 18% probability. Expected goals are slightly in favor of NEOM at 0.95 compared to Al Diriyah's 0.85.
Recent form indicates a mixed performance for Al Diriyah, with results showing a win, draw, loss, draw, win, and loss in their last six matches. In contrast, NEOM has shown better form, recording two wins, a draw, and three losses in their recent outings. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C, suggesting a level of uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Diriyah and NEOM expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.81
Al Diriyah and NEOM attack and defence ratings
Al Diriyah
NEOM
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Diriyah vs NEOM markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEOM | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Diriyah | 25.6% |
| Draw | 35.1% | |
| NEOM | 39.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.0% |
| No | 64.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEOM win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 60.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.7% |
| 0-1 | 15.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Al Diriyah vs NEOM stats
Al Diriyah and NEOM recent form
| Al Diriyah |
LWDLDW |
| NEOM |
LLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Diriyah and NEOM season so far
Al Diriyah record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEOM record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.