Al Riyadh
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Qadisiyah FC
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
| Probability | Al Riyadh | Draw | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.3% | 19.4% | 68.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.3% | 19.4% | 68.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Qadisiyah FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC match preview
In the upcoming Saudi Arabia Pro League match, Al Riyadh faces Al-Qadisiyah FC, with the latter holding a significant advantage according to our model. Al-Qadisiyah FC has a 74% probability of winning, while Al Riyadh's chances stand at just 9%. The expected goals further reflect this disparity, with Al Riyadh projected to score 0.75 and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.43.
Recent form also favors Al-Qadisiyah FC, who have won their last five matches, compared to Al Riyadh's mixed results of two wins and three losses in their last six games. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Additionally, there is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are given a 49% probability of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC attack and defence ratings
Al Riyadh
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC win | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Riyadh | 12.3% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 68.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 31.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC win | 46.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 31.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.1% |
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC stats
Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC recent form
| Al Riyadh |
LDWDLW |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC season so far
Al Riyadh record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 0-4 |
| 2026-01-04 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.