Al-Fateh
vs
Al Riyadh
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Fateh
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
| Probability | Al-Fateh | Draw | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.6% | 26.8% | 32.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.6% | 26.8% | 32.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh match preview
Al-Fateh will host Al Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Pro League on November 5, 2026. Our model gives Al-Fateh a 41% chance of winning, while Al Riyadh has a 33% probability and a draw stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Al-Fateh, with a 9% probability. Expected goals for Al-Fateh are 1.56, compared to Al Riyadh's 1.38, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Al-Fateh has struggled with six consecutive losses, while Al Riyadh has shown some resilience with two wins and two draws in their last five matches. Additionally, there is a 60% probability that both teams will score, and a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh attack and defence ratings
Al-Fateh
Al Riyadh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Taawon — match page
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah — team news & stats
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Fayha — match page
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — team news & stats
- Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM
- Al-Hazm v Al-Nassr — match page
- Abha vs Al Shabab — team news & stats
- Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Before and after this match
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fateh | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fateh | 40.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Al Riyadh | 32.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% |
| No | 39.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Fateh win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh stats
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh season so far
Al-Fateh record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Al Riyadh record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Al Riyadh | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Al-Fateh | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.