Al Riyadh
vs
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Hilal Saudi FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC
| Probability | Al Riyadh | Draw | Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7.3% | 14.6% | 78.2% |
| Market | 6.1% | 11.7% | 82.2% |
| Final | 6.4% | 12.4% | 81.2% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.7% | -1.0% |
Why Al-Hilal Saudi FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (our 81.2% × 1.18 − 1).
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC match preview
Al Riyadh faces Al-Hilal Saudi FC in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with a significant disparity in expected performance. Al Riyadh has a low probability of winning at just 6%, while Al-Hilal boasts an impressive 81% chance of securing the victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, with an expected goals tally of 0.65 for Al Riyadh and 2.42 for Al-Hilal.
In terms of recent form, Al Riyadh has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Al-Hilal has won five of their last six, demonstrating a clear advantage in momentum. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 69%, and both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a potentially dynamic match despite Al Riyadh's struggles.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack and defence ratings
Al Riyadh
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 81.2% | 1.23 | -1.0% | 1.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 93.6% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Riyadh | 6.4% |
| Draw | 12.4% | |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 81.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 18.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 93.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win | 62.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 19.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.9% |
| 0-3 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 8.6% |
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC stats
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC recent form
| Al Riyadh |
LWLDWD |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC season so far
Al Riyadh record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC record
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Al Riyadh | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-14 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Al Riyadh | Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Al Riyadh | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Pro League | 0-3 |
| 2024-03-08 | Al Riyadh | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Pro League | 1-3 |
| 2023-09-15 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Al Riyadh | Pro League | 6-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 6.1%, draw 11.7%, away 82.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 18.00 | 9.55 | 1.10 |
| Bet365 | 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.14 |
| Betano | 15.50 | 7.40 | 1.18 |
| Betfair | 18.00 | 8.50 | 1.12 |
| Marathonbet | 14.50 | 7.60 | 1.09 |
| Pinnacle | 13.97 | 9.95 | 1.11 |
| SBO | 9.64 | 6.18 | 1.12 |
| William Hill | 15.00 | 8.00 | 1.11 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .