Al Shabab
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Ahli Jeddah
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.34.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
| Probability | Al Shabab | Draw | Al-Ahli Jeddah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.1% | 19.4% | 62.5% |
| Market | 26.8% | 23.7% | 49.5% |
| Final | 24.6% | 22.6% | 52.7% |
| Edge | -2.2% | -1.1% | +3.3% |
Why Al-Ahli Jeddah
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al-Ahli Jeddah below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (our 52.7% × 1.93 − 1).
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah match preview
In the upcoming Saudi Arabia Pro League match, Al Shabab faces Al-Ahli Jeddah, with kickoff set for October 30, 2026. Al-Ahli Jeddah comes into the game with a stronger recent form, having won four of their last six matches, while Al Shabab has managed just two wins in their last six outings. According to our model, the probabilities indicate a 25% chance for an Al Shabab win, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 53% likelihood of an Al-Ahli Jeddah victory.
The expected goals for this match suggest Al Shabab will score approximately 1.34, while Al-Ahli Jeddah is projected to net around 2.53. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.87
Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah attack and defence ratings
Al Shabab
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 52.7% | 1.90 | +3.3% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah win | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shabab | 24.6% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 52.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah win | 42.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 37.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-3 | 7.5% |
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah stats
Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah recent form
| Al Shabab |
WDWDLL |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah season so far
Al Shabab record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Al Shabab | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-5 |
| 2025-10-17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al Shabab | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.8%, draw 23.7%, away 49.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 3.87 | 1.89 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 4.00 | 1.93 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 3.70 | 1.81 |
| Pinnacle | 3.42 | 4.05 | 1.88 |