Al-Ittihad FC
vs
Al Diriyah
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Ittihad FC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah
| Probability | Al-Ittihad FC | Draw | Al Diriyah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 27.8% | 24.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.9% | 27.8% | 24.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Ittihad FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah match preview
Al-Ittihad FC faces Al Diriyah in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with a kickoff scheduled for October 23, 2026. According to our model, Al-Ittihad FC holds a 48% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 28% and Al Diriyah at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Al-Ittihad FC, with an expected goals tally of 1.55 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.04 for Al Diriyah.
In terms of recent form, Al-Ittihad FC has recorded a mixed set of results with one loss, followed by three wins, a draw, and another win. Al Diriyah, on the other hand, has experienced a loss, a draw, followed by a win, another loss, a win, and a draw. Our model indicates a 48% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Diriyah expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Diriyah attack and defence ratings
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Diriyah
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 47.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Al Diriyah | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ittihad FC win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah stats
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Diriyah recent form
| Al-Ittihad FC |
LWWWDW |
| Al Diriyah |
LDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Diriyah season so far
Al-Ittihad FC record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al Diriyah record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.