Al Diriyah
vs
Al Riyadh
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Diriyah
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh
| Probability | Al Diriyah | Draw | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 30.6% | 26.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.7% | 30.6% | 26.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al Diriyah
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.98.
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh match preview
Al Diriyah faces Al Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Pro League with a kickoff scheduled for October 20, 2026. According to our model, Al Diriyah has a 43% probability of winning, while Al Riyadh stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Al Diriyah, with an expected goals tally of 1.30 for Al Diriyah compared to 0.98 for Al Riyadh.
Recent form shows Al Diriyah with a record of L-D-W-L-W-D, while Al Riyadh has D-W-D-L-W-D. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and both teams to score has a likelihood of 47%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh attack and defence ratings
Al Diriyah
Al Riyadh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm — team news & stats
- Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
- Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — match page
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC
- Al-Nassr vs NEOM — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Diriyah | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Diriyah | 42.7% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Al Riyadh | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Diriyah win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh stats
Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh recent form
| Al Diriyah |
LDWLWD |
| Al Riyadh |
DWDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh season so far
Al Diriyah record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Riyadh record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.