Al-Nassr
vs
NEOM
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Nassr
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Al-Nassr vs NEOM overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Nassr vs NEOM
| Probability | Al-Nassr | Draw | NEOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.4% | 25.8% | 23.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.4% | 25.8% | 23.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Nassr
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Al-Nassr vs NEOM match preview
Al-Nassr is set to face NEOM in the Saudi Arabia Pro League, with a kickoff scheduled for October 20, 2026. According to our model, Al-Nassr holds a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 26% and NEOM at 24%. The expected goals are 1.75 for Al-Nassr and 1.15 for NEOM, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Al-Nassr, with a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Al-Nassr has recorded two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while NEOM has three wins, one draw, and two losses. Historically, Al-Nassr has dominated their encounters with NEOM, winning both of their last two matchups without conceding. The model indicates a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Nassr and NEOM expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Al-Nassr and NEOM attack and defence ratings
Al-Nassr
NEOM
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Nassr vs NEOM markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 50.4% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| NEOM | 23.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Al-Nassr vs NEOM stats
Al-Nassr and NEOM recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Nassr and NEOM season so far
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEOM record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Al-Nassr vs NEOM head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Al-Nassr | NEOM | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | NEOM | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.