Al-Nassr
vs
Al Diriyah
3 – 0 Full time
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
| Probability | Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Diriyah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.1% | 28.7% | 22.3% |
| Market | 67.8% | 17.7% | 14.5% |
| Final | 63.1% | 20.5% | 16.4% |
| Edge | -18.7% | +10.9% | +7.8% |
Why Al-Nassr
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah attack and defence ratings
Al-Nassr
Al Diriyah
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah: result vs prediction
Al-Nassr 3 – 0 Al Diriyah
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 63.1% | 1.58 | -18.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 63.1% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Al Diriyah | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.1% |
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah stats
Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah recent form
| Al-Nassr |
DWLWWW |
| Al Diriyah |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah going into this match
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Diriyah record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Al Diriyah | Al-Nassr | King's Cup | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.8%, draw 17.7%, away 14.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.35 | 5.52 | 6.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.75 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 5.30 | 6.40 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.40 | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 5.05 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 5.76 | 6.28 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.74 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.80 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .