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Saudi Arabia Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

3 – 2 Full time

14′T. Reijnders
23′Valentin Atangana Edoa
29′Gastón Álvarez
45′M. Abu Al Shamat
45′T. Reijnders
46′R. HamidouM. Abdulrahman
54′Nacho Fernández
60′GalenoS. Abu Al Shamat
61′F. Al BuraikanN. Masoud
62′Musab Al Juwayr
63′I. Toney
64′S. BalobaidM. Sulaiman
69′M. Al JuwayrM. Al Qahtani
82′I. Toney
86′Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani
87′J. ThakriT. Al Ammar
87′M. ReteguiA. Al Aliwa
88′M. Abu Al ShamatY. Al Shahrani
90′V. AtanganaA. Radif

EGO Stadium, DammamReferee: Ismail Elfath, USA

Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%
Draw 25%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 5
56 Possession % 44
6 Corners 5
16 Fouls 21
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
438 Accurate passes 323

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl-Qadisiyah FCDrawAl-Ahli Jeddah
Model47.4%24.7%27.9%
Market46.3%25.5%28.2%
Final46.6%25.3%28.1%
Edge+1.2%-0.8%-0.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Al-Qadisiyah FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.38.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al-Qadisiyah F ↓ / Al-Ahli Jeddah → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.38

Total expected goals: 3.23

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah attack and defence ratings

Al-Qadisiyah FC

Attack 1.49 +49%
Defence 0.66 -34%

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: result vs prediction

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 – 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Saudi Arabia Pro League

Before and after this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al-Qadisiyah FC 46.6% 2.15 +1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.5% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.0% 1.56 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.5% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al-Qadisiyah FC46.6%
Draw25.3%
Al-Ahli Jeddah28.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%
Both teams to scoreYes64.0%
No36.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.9%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)53.4%
Handicap -1Al-Qadisiyah FC win27.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss52.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.3%
1-27.0%

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah stats

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah recent form

newest first
Al-Qadisiyah FC WWWLWW
Al-Ahli Jeddah WLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah going into this match

league record before kick-off

Al-Qadisiyah FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

Al-Ahli Jeddah record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Al-Qadisiyah FC wins 2Draws 5Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-13Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Ahli JeddahSaudi Arabia Pro League3-2
2025-11-28Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Qadisiyah FCKing's Cup3-3
2025-11-21Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Qadisiyah FCSaudi Arabia Pro League2-1
2025-08-20Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Ahli JeddahSuper Cup1-5
2025-02-25Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Qadisiyah FCPro League4-1
2024-09-27Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Ahli JeddahPro League1-0
2023-05-23Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Qadisiyah FCDivision 11-0
2023-01-10Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Ahli JeddahDivision 11-1
2021-05-14Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Qadisiyah FCPro League1-0
2021-01-08Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Ahli JeddahPro League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 25.5%, away 28.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.95 3.80 3.40
1xBet 2.02 3.56 3.38
888Sport 2.00 3.30 3.00
Bet365 2.05 3.50 3.20
BetVictor 2.00 3.60 3.13
Betano 2.10 3.70 3.30
Betfair 2.00 3.90 3.10
Dafabet 2.10 3.75 3.30
Marathonbet 1.95 3.44 3.26
Pinnacle 2.06 3.71 3.37
SBO 1.98 3.38 3.05
Superbet 2.10 3.70 3.30
Unibet 1.86 3.65 3.40
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▲ +0.18
X 3.62 ▼ -0.22
2 3.28 ▼ -0.32

8 snapshots recorded, from .