Saudi Arabia Pro League · 2026-09-03T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

0 – 2 Full time

1′			Mateo Retegui
42′			Nacho Fernández
49′			Idrissa Gana Gueye
51′			M. Retegui
54′			Julian Weigl
58′			J. Quinones
60′			M. Al QahtaniC. Puertas
68′			K. A. Al Sibyani H.M. Hameran
68′			Q. LajamiM. Al Nemer
84′			I. GueyeH. Al Qahtani
84′			E. MillotH. Bahebri
86′			C. DiandyA. Al Zaid
86′			C. Bonsu BaahT. Al Ammar
86′			M. ReteguiA. Al Salem
90′			Óscar Rodríguez
90′			Musab Al Juwayr
90′			Jehad Thakri

Al-Awwal Park, RiyadhReferee: Ahmad Al Rumaikhani, Saudi Arabia

Al Diriyah

19%

Draw

22%

Al-Qadisiyah FC

60%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

8	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	4
40	Possession %	60
3	Corners	5
12	Fouls	17
2	Offsides	1
2	Saves	2
315	Accurate passes	513

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Al Diriyah	Draw	Al-Qadisiyah FC
Model	26.4%	28.6%	45.0%
Market	16.0%	19.5%	64.5%
Final	18.6%	21.8%	59.6%
Edge	+10.4%	+9.0%	-19.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Al-Qadisiyah FC

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.08.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

73%

3+ goals

47%

No goals

Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected goals

Al Diriyah

1.08

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.47

Total expected goals: 2.54

Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC attack and defence ratings

Al Diriyah

Attack

0.96 -4%

Defence

0.70 -30%

Al-Qadisiyah FC

Attack

1.48 +48%

Defence

0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: result vs prediction

Al Diriyah 0 – 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Saudi Arabia Pro League

Al-Fayha v Al Kholood — match page · 2026-09-03
NEOM vs Al Khaleej Saihat — team news & stats · 2026-09-03
Abha v Al-Ettifaq — match page · 2026-09-04
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2026-09-04
Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Hazm — match page · 2026-09-05
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr · 2026-09-05

Before and after this match

Al Diriyah, previous: Al-Ettifaq v Al Diriyah analysis
Al Diriyah, next: Al-Fateh v Al Diriyah analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC, previous: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC prediction
Al-Qadisiyah FC, next: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: odds and pick

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	59.6%	1.68	-19.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	53.3%	1.88	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	51.9%	1.93	—	—
Double chance	X2 (draw or away)	81.4%	1.23	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	55.2%	1.81	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Al Diriyah	18.6%
	Draw	21.8%
	Al-Qadisiyah FC	59.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46.7%
	Under 2.5	53.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	51.9%
	No	48.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	40.4%
	12 (either side)	78.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	81.4%
Handicap -1	Al-Qadisiyah FC win	22.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.1%
	Loss	55.2%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.6%
	0-1	10.3%
	1-2	9.1%

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC stats

Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC recent form

newest first

Al Diriyah	WDWL
Al-Qadisiyah FC	WWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Al Diriyah record

They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Al-Qadisiyah FC record

They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.0%, draw 19.5%, away 64.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	5.80	4.80	1.45
1xBet	5.84	4.80	1.45
Bet365	5.25	4.50	1.42
BetVictor	6.00	4.60	1.40
Betano	5.80	5.10	1.47
Betfair	6.00	5.00	1.40
Dafabet	5.80	4.90	1.48
Marathonbet	5.60	4.70	1.39
Pinnacle	5.91	5.19	1.44
SBO	5.32	4.38	1.41
Unibet	5.20	4.20	1.49
William Hill	5.00	4.33	1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.80 ▲ +0.55

X 4.75 ▲ +0.55

2 1.44 ▼ -0.01

4 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-02T08:10:02Z.