Al-Ittihad FC
vs
Al-Nassr
2 – 1 Full time
| 4′ | G. Ilenikhena | ||
| 22′ | G. Ilenikhena | ||
| 36′ | Angelo | ||
| 46′ | M. AliR. Rios | ||
| 53′ | Dion Lopy | ||
| 53′ | A. Al JulaydanM. Al Shanqiti | ||
| 55′ | Samú Costa | ||
| 60′ | S. Al NajdiS. Al Nasser | ||
| 60′ | K. ComanA. Yahya | ||
| 67′ | G. IlenikhenaY. En Nesyri | ||
| 67′ | A. Al GhamdiM. Al Sahafi | ||
| 69′ | João Félix | ||
| 78′ | Samu CostaA. Al Khaibari | ||
| 78′ | AngeloA. Al Hamdan | ||
| 79′ | Abdullah Al-Khaibari | ||
| 82′ | S. BergwijnR. Kaabi | ||
| 90′ | Youssef En-Nesyri | ||
| 90′ | Abdulelah Al-Amri |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 3 | Corners | 14 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 7 | Saves | 1 |
| 298 | Accurate passes | 361 |
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr
| Probability | Al-Ittihad FC | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 20.9% | 62.8% |
| Market | 17.7% | 20.0% | 62.3% |
| Final | 17.4% | 20.2% | 62.4% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.9% | +0.5% |
Why Al-Nassr
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr attack and defence ratings
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Nassr
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr: result vs prediction
Al-Ittihad FC 2 – 1 Al-Nassr
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 62.4% | 1.60 | +0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 17.4% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Al-Nassr | 62.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% |
| No | 39.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win | 41.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 37.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr stats
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr recent form
| Al-Ittihad FC |
DWWDLL |
| Al-Nassr |
WWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr going into this match
Al-Ittihad FC record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Al-Nassr record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ittihad FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ittihad FC | King's Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Al-Ittihad FC | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-19 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ittihad FC | Super Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-07 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ittihad FC | Pro League | 2-3 |
| 2024-12-06 | Al-Ittihad FC | Al-Nassr | Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-27 | Al-Nassr | Al-Ittihad FC | Pro League | 4-2 |
| 2023-12-26 | Al-Ittihad FC | Al-Nassr | Pro League | 2-5 |
| 2023-03-09 | Al-Ittihad FC | Al-Nassr | Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-26 | Al-Ittihad FC | Al-Nassr | Super Cup | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.1%, draw 20.0%, away 61.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.53 |
| 1xBet | 5.24 | 4.77 | 1.49 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 1.48 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 5.10 | 4.70 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.80 | 1.55 |
| Marathonbet | 5.05 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| Pinnacle | 5.38 | 5.04 | 1.49 |
| SBO | 4.50 | 4.03 | 1.44 |
| Unibet | 5.10 | 4.50 | 1.46 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .