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Saudi Arabia Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh

3 – 3 Full time

Al-Shabab Club Stadium, RiyadhReferee: Ahmad Al Rumaikhani, Saudi Arabia

Al Shabab 54%
Draw 24%
Al Riyadh 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl ShababDrawAl Riyadh
Model48.4%24.1%27.5%
Market56.0%23.6%20.5%
Final54.1%23.7%22.2%
Edge-7.6%+0.5%+7.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Al Shabab

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.42.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al Shabab ↓ / Al Riyadh → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Al Shabab and Al Riyadh expected goals

Al Shabab 1.93
Al Riyadh 1.42

Total expected goals: 3.35

Al Shabab and Al Riyadh attack and defence ratings

Al Shabab

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Al Riyadh

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh: result vs prediction

Al Shabab 3 – 3 Al Riyadh

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Saudi Arabia Pro League

Before and after this match

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al Shabab 54.1% 1.85 -7.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.9% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.7% 1.52 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.8% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.6% 1.94 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al Shabab54.1%
Draw23.7%
Al Riyadh22.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.9%
Under 2.535.1%
Both teams to scoreYes65.7%
No34.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.8%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)45.9%
Handicap -1Al Shabab win28.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss51.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
2-19.3%
1-26.9%

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh stats

Al Shabab and Al Riyadh recent form

newest first
Al Shabab DLLWLL
Al Riyadh LLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al Shabab and Al Riyadh going into this match

league record before kick-off

Al Shabab record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Al Riyadh record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

5Al Shabab wins 2Draws 0Al Riyadh wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Al RiyadhAl ShababSaudi Arabia Pro League1-1
2026-02-23Al ShababAl RiyadhSaudi Arabia Pro League3-1
2025-05-15Al RiyadhAl ShababPro League1-3
2025-01-15Al ShababAl RiyadhPro League2-1
2024-10-28Al RiyadhAl ShababKing's Cup0-2
2024-04-03Al ShababAl RiyadhPro League1-0
2023-10-05Al RiyadhAl ShababPro League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 23.6%, away 20.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.68 3.90 4.60
1xBet 1.65 4.06 4.61
Bet365 1.60 3.80 4.33
BetVictor 1.62 3.90 4.50
Betano 1.72 4.00 4.65
Betfair 1.62 4.10 4.50
Dafabet 1.70 4.10 4.60
Marathonbet 1.59 3.92 4.45
Pinnacle 1.64 4.23 4.82
SBO 1.64 3.68 4.08
Unibet 1.67 3.75 4.20
William Hill 1.67 3.60 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.65 ▼ -0.09
X 3.91 ▲ +0.01
2 4.50 ▲ +0.30

6 snapshots recorded, from .