Al Riyadh
vs
NEOM
1 – 0 Full time
Al Riyadh vs NEOM overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Riyadh vs NEOM
| Probability | Al Riyadh | Draw | NEOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.2% | 24.9% | 48.0% |
| Market | 26.9% | 25.7% | 47.4% |
| Final | 27.0% | 25.5% | 47.5% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.8% | +0.6% |
Why NEOM
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Riyadh and NEOM expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Al Riyadh and NEOM attack and defence ratings
Al Riyadh
NEOM
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al Riyadh vs NEOM: result vs prediction
Al Riyadh 1 – 0 NEOM
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Al-Fayha v Abha — match page
- Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — team news & stats
- Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon
- Al Kholood v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page
- Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC — team news & stats
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah
- Al-Hazm v Al Shabab — match page
- Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Al Riyadh vs NEOM markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEOM | 47.5% | 2.10 | +0.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Riyadh | 27.0% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| NEOM | 47.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEOM win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 7.0% |
Al Riyadh vs NEOM stats
Al Riyadh and NEOM recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Riyadh and NEOM going into this match
Al Riyadh record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
NEOM record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Al Riyadh vs NEOM head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | NEOM | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Al Riyadh | NEOM | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Riyadh vs NEOM odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 25.7%, away 47.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.55 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 3.51 | 3.64 | 1.96 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.70 | 2.01 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 3.50 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.47 | 3.64 | 1.98 |
| Superbet | 3.55 | 3.70 | 2.02 |
| Unibet | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.90 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .