Garuda Lions
Today
Saudi Arabia Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr

2 – 3 Full time

EGO Stadium, DammamReferee: Mohammed Khled Hoish, Saudi Arabia

Al-Ettifaq 12%
Draw 17%
Al-Nassr 71%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl-EttifaqDrawAl-Nassr
Model16.0%20.4%63.6%
Market10.6%15.3%74.1%
Final11.9%16.6%71.5%
Edge+5.5%+5.1%-10.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Al-Nassr

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al-Ettifaq ↓ / Al-Nassr → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 9% 7% 7% 1 9% 10% 8% 8% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected goals

Al-Ettifaq 1.12
Al-Nassr 2.33

Total expected goals: 3.45

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr attack and defence ratings

Al-Ettifaq

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Al-Nassr

Attack 1.73 +73%
Defence 0.61 -39%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr: result vs prediction

Al-Ettifaq 2 – 3 Al-Nassr

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Saudi Arabia Pro League

Before and after this match

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al-Nassr 71.5% 1.40 -10.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.8% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.5% 1.63 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 88.1% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Al-Nassr win 42.2% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al-Ettifaq11.9%
Draw16.6%
Al-Nassr71.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%
Both teams to scoreYes61.5%
No38.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)28.5%
12 (either side)83.4%
X2 (draw or away)88.1%
Handicap -1Al-Nassr win42.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss36.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.7%
1-19.1%
0-28.7%

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr stats

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr recent form

newest first
Al-Ettifaq WWDLWD
Al-Nassr WWWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr going into this match

league record before kick-off

Al-Ettifaq record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Al-Nassr record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Al-Ettifaq wins 3Draws 5Al-Nassr wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-15Al-NassrAl-EttifaqSaudi Arabia Pro League1-0
2025-12-30Al-EttifaqAl-NassrSaudi Arabia Pro League2-2
2025-02-21Al-NassrAl-EttifaqPro League2-3
2024-09-20Al-EttifaqAl-NassrPro League0-3
2023-12-22Al-NassrAl-EttifaqPro League3-1
2023-10-31Al-NassrAl-EttifaqKing's Cup1-0
2023-08-14Al-EttifaqAl-NassrPro League2-1
2023-05-27Al-EttifaqAl-NassrPro League1-1
2023-01-22Al-NassrAl-EttifaqPro League1-0
2022-03-11Al-EttifaqAl-NassrPro League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 10.6%, draw 15.3%, away 74.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 10.25 6.00 1.25
1xBet 9.60 6.52 1.23
Bet365 8.50 5.25 1.25
BetVictor 9.00 5.75 1.22
Betano 9.00 6.20 1.28
Betfair 9.00 6.50 1.22
Dafabet 9.00 6.60 1.27
Marathonbet 8.70 5.90 1.21
Pinnacle 8.52 7.07 1.24
SBO 7.24 5.61 1.24
Superbet 8.60 6.50 1.27
Unibet 7.50 5.60 1.26
William Hill 8.50 5.80 1.22

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 8.70 ▲ +0.75
X 6.00 ▼ -0.08
2 1.24 ▼ -0.02

7 snapshots recorded, from .