Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
vs
Musselburgh Athletic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.57.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic
| Probability | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | Draw | Musselburgh Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.4% | 23.8% | 30.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.4% | 23.8% | 30.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.57.
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic match preview
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn faces Musselburgh Athletic in the Scotland FA Cup with a predicted win probability of 45% for the home side, while Musselburgh has a 31% chance of victory. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Hill Of Beath Hawthorn, with an expected goals tally of 1.93 compared to Musselburgh's 1.57.
Both teams exhibit strong attacking potential, as reflected in the model's predictions, with a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score. Recent form shows Hill Of Beath Hawthorn with a record of W-L-W-L-W-W, while Musselburgh Athletic has a record of W-L-W-W-L-W, indicating competitive momentum heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and Musselburgh Athletic expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and Musselburgh Athletic attack and defence ratings
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Musselburgh Athletic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 45.4% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Musselburgh Athletic | 30.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic stats
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and Musselburgh Athletic recent form
| Hill Of Beath Hawthorn |
WLWLWW |
| Musselburgh Athletic |
WLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | Musselburgh Athletic | Football League - Lowland League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.