Musselburgh Athletic
vs
Airdrie United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Musselburgh Athletic
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.87.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Musselburgh Athletic vs Airdrie United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Musselburgh Athletic vs Airdrie United
| Probability | Musselburgh Athletic | Draw | Airdrie United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.1% | 21.4% | 13.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.1% | 21.4% | 13.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Musselburgh Athletic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Musselburgh Athletic vs Airdrie United match preview
Musselburgh Athletic faces Airdrie United in the Scotland FA Cup, with Musselburgh Athletic holding a strong probability of 65% to win, compared to Airdrie United's 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Musselburgh's expected goals stand at 2.12, while Airdrie United's are significantly lower at 0.87.
In terms of recent form, Musselburgh Athletic has recorded three wins in their last six matches, while Airdrie United has struggled, with only one win in their last six games. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58%, and both teams are projected to score with a 52% likelihood. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Musselburgh Athletic and Airdrie United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Musselburgh Athletic and Airdrie United attack and defence ratings
Musselburgh Athletic
Airdrie United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Ross County v Brora Rangers — match page
- Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers — team news & stats
- Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
- Montrose v Hamilton Academical — match page
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats
- Elgin City vs Partick
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Musselburgh Athletic vs Airdrie United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Musselburgh Athletic | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.6% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Musselburgh Athletic win | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Musselburgh Athletic | 65.1% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Airdrie United | 13.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Musselburgh Athletic win | 42.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 34.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Musselburgh Athletic vs Airdrie United stats
Musselburgh Athletic and Airdrie United recent form
| Musselburgh Athletic |
WWLWWL |
| Airdrie United |
LLDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.