Threave Rovers
vs
Alloa Athletic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Threave Rovers
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.38.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Threave Rovers vs Alloa Athletic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Threave Rovers vs Alloa Athletic
| Probability | Threave Rovers | Draw | Alloa Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.9% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.9% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Threave Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Threave Rovers vs Alloa Athletic match preview
Threave Rovers are favored to win against Alloa Athletic, with a 64% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% likelihood. Threave Rovers have shown a mixed recent form with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Alloa Athletic has recorded three wins and three losses in the same period.
The expected goals for Threave Rovers stand at 2.65, compared to Alloa Athletic's 1.38. There is a strong chance of a high-scoring match, with a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance that both teams will score. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Threave Rovers and Alloa Athletic expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.03
Threave Rovers and Alloa Athletic attack and defence ratings
Threave Rovers
Alloa Athletic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Ross County v Brora Rangers — match page
- Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers — team news & stats
- Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
- Montrose v Hamilton Academical — match page
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats
- Elgin City vs Partick
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Threave Rovers vs Alloa Athletic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Threave Rovers | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Threave Rovers win | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Threave Rovers | 63.9% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| Alloa Athletic | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% |
| No | 29.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Threave Rovers win | 44.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 36.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% | |
| 1-1 | 7.1% |
Threave Rovers vs Alloa Athletic stats
Threave Rovers and Alloa Athletic recent form
| Threave Rovers |
WWLWLW |
| Alloa Athletic |
WLWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.