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Scotland FA Cup · Full time ·Round of 128

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves

4 – 3 Full time

20′D. Viviani
24′R. McNeil
40′S. Thompson
49′R. McNeil
55′J. Allan
90′D. Syme
95′S. Bronsky
Troon FC 36%
Draw 23%
Caledonian Braves 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTroon FCDrawCaledonian Braves
Model36.4%23.0%40.6%
Market———
Final36.4%23.0%40.6%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Caledonian Braves

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Troon FC ↓ / Caledonian Bra → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 8% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Troon FC and Caledonian Braves expected goals

Troon FC 1.83
Caledonian Braves 1.94

Total expected goals: 3.77

Troon FC and Caledonian Braves attack and defence ratings

Troon FC

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Caledonian Braves

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves: result vs prediction

Troon FC 4 – 3 Caledonian Braves

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Scotland FA Cup

Before and after this match

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Caledonian Braves 40.6% 2.46 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.6% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.7% 1.37 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.4% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Troon FC36.4%
Draw23.0%
Caledonian Braves40.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.6%
Under 2.527.4%
Both teams to scoreYes72.7%
No27.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.4%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)63.6%
Handicap -1Caledonian Braves win22.7%
Push (exactly one goal)17.9%
Loss59.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.0%
1-27.9%
2-17.5%

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves stats

Troon FC and Caledonian Braves recent form

newest first
Troon FC W
Caledonian Braves WLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Troon FC vs Caledonian Braves odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.