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Segunda División · Full time ·Matchday 6

Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II

2 – 0 Full time

6′Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo
18′Javier Muñoz Jiménez
45′Ángel ArcosMateo Sobral Sabajanes
45′Bernard Sarpong SomuahAlvaro·Marin Sesma
45′Stefan DžodićMikel Vesga
62′Nicolás Melamed RibaudoSergio Arribas Calvo
64′Joel LopezPablo Gavián Alonso
73′Hugo CuencaVladimir Henrique Silva
79′Adrián EmbarbaÁlex Sola
79′Brian CipengaJon Morcillo
83′Óscar MarcosAldrine Kibet
87′Adrià Capdevila
88′Miguel De La FuenteThalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo

UD Almería Stadium, AlmeriaReferee: Rafael Sanchez Lopez

Almeria 63%
Draw 22%
Celta de Vigo II 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 1
51 Possession % 49
2 Corners 5
14 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 4
1 Saves 4
414 Accurate passes 398

Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlmeriaDrawCelta de Vigo II
Model55.9%24.5%19.6%
Market65.5%20.5%14.0%
Final63.1%21.5%15.4%
Edge-9.6%+4.0%+5.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Almeria

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Almeria ↓ / Celta de Vigo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Almeria and Celta de Vigo II expected goals

Almeria 1.88
Celta de Vigo II 1.04

Total expected goals: 2.92

Almeria and Celta de Vigo II attack and defence ratings

Almeria

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Celta de Vigo II

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II: result vs prediction

Almeria 2 – 0 Celta de Vigo II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Almeria 63.1% 1.58 -9.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.8% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.8% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.6% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.1% 2.27 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Almeria63.1%
Draw21.5%
Celta de Vigo II15.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%
Both teams to scoreYes55.8%
No44.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.6%
12 (either side)78.5%
X2 (draw or away)36.9%
Handicap -1Almeria win33.1%
Push (exactly one goal)22.8%
Loss44.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-19.9%
2-09.5%

Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II stats

Almeria and Celta de Vigo II recent form

newest first
Almeria WWLLWL
Celta de Vigo II LWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Almeria and Celta de Vigo II going into this match

league record before kick-off

Almeria record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Celta de Vigo II record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.5%, draw 20.5%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.46 4.80 6.81
Bet365 1.45 4.33 7.00
BetVictor 1.40 4.40 6.50
Betano 1.45 4.50 7.10
Betfair 1.33 4.60 6.50
Marathonbet 1.41 4.65 6.60
Pinnacle 1.46 4.78 7.00
SBO 1.41 4.32 5.99
William Hill 1.40 4.33 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.41 ▲ +0.05
X 4.50 ▼ -0.20
2 6.60 ▼ -0.70

10 snapshots recorded, from .