Burgos
vs
AD Ceuta FC
3 – 1 Full time
| 14′ | Carlos Hernández | ||
| 20′ | Alberto Dadie | ||
| 27′ | Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro | ||
| 48′ | Jon Karrikaburu | ||
| 62′ | José Gragera | ||
| 66′ | Kuki Zalazar | ||
| 66′ | Jon KarrikaburuÁlex Forés | ||
| 66′ | Unai VencedorPablo Galdames | ||
| 66′ | Javier Llabrés ExpositoKevin Appin | ||
| 71′ | Edgar SevikyanUmaru Konare | ||
| 75′ | José GrageraOier Luengo Redondo | ||
| 81′ | Mawuli Kwame Mensah VadzeJosé Antonio Abad Martínez | ||
| 81′ | José MatosJoaquín Felipe González Rodríguez | ||
| 81′ | Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroAlejandro Meléndez | ||
| 81′ | CurroSantiago Lencina | ||
| 81′ | Carlos Redruello Nimo | ||
| 84′ | Alejandro Camacho RamírezJordi Escobar | ||
| 86′ | David Gonzalez | ||
| 90′ | Alberto Dadie |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 2 | Saves | 0 |
| 361 | Accurate passes | 394 |
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC
| Probability | Burgos | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.6% | 24.8% | 10.6% |
| Market | 57.5% | 25.3% | 17.2% |
| Final | 59.3% | 25.1% | 15.5% |
| Edge | +7.1% | -0.5% | -6.6% |
Why Burgos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burgos and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Burgos and AD Ceuta FC attack and defence ratings
Burgos
AD Ceuta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC: result vs prediction
Burgos 3 – 1 AD Ceuta FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 59.3% | 1.69 | +7.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 38.0% | 2.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 59.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 15.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.9% |
| No | 64.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 38.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.6% | |
| Loss | 35.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.8% |
| 2-0 | 15.2% | |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC stats
Burgos and AD Ceuta FC recent form
| Burgos |
DDLWWW |
| AD Ceuta FC |
LLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Burgos | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | AD Ceuta FC | Burgos | Segunda División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.4%, draw 24.7%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.89 | 5.50 |
| 888Sport | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.60 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 3.85 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.78 | 5.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 3.94 | 5.79 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.42 | 4.37 |
| Superbet | 1.67 | 3.85 | 5.15 |
| Unibet | 1.57 | 3.65 | 5.20 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .