Azam
vs
Mbeya City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Azam
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.60.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Azam vs Mbeya City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Azam vs Mbeya City
| Probability | Azam | Draw | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.4% | 26.8% | 12.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.4% | 26.8% | 12.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Azam
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Azam vs Mbeya City match preview
Azam is favored to win against Mbeya City with a 60% probability, while the chances of a draw stand at 27%, and Mbeya City has a 13% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Azam, with an expected goals tally of 1.59 for Azam compared to 0.60 for Mbeya City. Recent form shows Azam with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Mbeya City has struggled, recording three losses, one draw, and one win.
In their last two encounters, Azam has secured one win and one draw against Mbeya City, who has yet to win in this matchup. The model indicates a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Azam and Mbeya City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Azam and Mbeya City attack and defence ratings
Azam
Mbeya City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Azam vs Mbeya City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azam | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azam | 60.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Mbeya City | 12.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.2% |
| No | 62.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Azam win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.6% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.6% |
| 2-0 | 14.1% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Azam vs Mbeya City stats
Azam and Mbeya City recent form
| Azam |
DWLWWD |
| Mbeya City |
LLLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Azam and Mbeya City season so far
Azam record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mbeya City record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Azam vs Mbeya City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Mbeya City | Azam | Tanzania Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Azam | Mbeya City | Tanzania Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.