Fountain Gate
vs
Simba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Simba
0 – 2 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 0.60.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fountain Gate vs Simba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fountain Gate vs Simba
| Probability | Fountain Gate | Draw | Simba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5.6% | 14.3% | 80.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 5.6% | 14.3% | 80.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Simba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Fountain Gate vs Simba match preview
Fountain Gate faces a challenging match against Simba in the Tanzania Premier League, with the model giving Fountain Gate a mere 6% chance of winning compared to Simba's 80%. Recent form highlights the struggles of Fountain Gate, who have recorded a series of disappointing results, including five consecutive losses. In contrast, Simba is on an impressive winning streak, having secured six straight victories.
The expected goals further illustrate the disparity, with Fountain Gate projected to score only 0.60 compared to Simba's 2.64. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring with a probability of 14%. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams to score stands at 43%. With Simba's dominant form and historical advantage, they appear poised for another victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fountain Gate and Simba expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Fountain Gate and Simba attack and defence ratings
Fountain Gate
Simba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fountain Gate vs Simba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 94.4% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fountain Gate | 5.6% |
| Draw | 14.3% | |
| Simba | 80.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.7% |
| No | 57.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 19.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 94.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 59.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 19.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.6% |
| 0-3 | 12.0% | |
| 0-1 | 9.7% |
Fountain Gate vs Simba stats
Fountain Gate and Simba recent form
| Fountain Gate |
DLDLLL |
| Simba |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fountain Gate and Simba season so far
Fountain Gate record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Simba record
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Fountain Gate vs Simba head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Fountain Gate | Simba | Tanzania Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-25 | Simba | Fountain Gate | Tanzania Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.