Coastal Union
vs
Kagera Sugar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Coastal Union
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar
| Probability | Coastal Union | Draw | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.3% | 25.9% | 20.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.3% | 25.9% | 20.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Coastal Union
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar match preview
Coastal Union faces Kagera Sugar in the Tanzania Premier League with a predicted win probability of 53% for the home side, compared to 21% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals figure of 1.74 for Coastal Union and 1.02 for Kagera Sugar. Recent form shows Coastal Union with a mixed record of W-L-W-W-L-D, while Kagera Sugar has struggled, recording D-W-D-L-L-L in their last six matches.
The model indicates a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score. With Coastal Union's stronger recent performances and higher expected goals, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coastal Union and Kagera Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Coastal Union and Kagera Sugar attack and defence ratings
Coastal Union
Kagera Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coastal Union | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coastal Union | 53.3% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Kagera Sugar | 20.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coastal Union win | 30.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar stats
Coastal Union and Kagera Sugar recent form
| Coastal Union |
WLWWLD |
| Kagera Sugar |
DWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coastal Union and Kagera Sugar season so far
Coastal Union record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Kagera Sugar record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.