Young Africans
vs
Kagera Sugar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Young Africans
3 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.51.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar
| Probability | Young Africans | Draw | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 87.6% | 9.5% | 2.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 87.6% | 9.5% | 2.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Young Africans
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar match preview
Young Africans are heavily favored in their upcoming match against Kagera Sugar, with a probability of 88% for a win according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 3-0, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Young Africans have shown strong recent form, with three wins in their last six matches, while Kagera Sugar has struggled, recording only one win in their last six.
In terms of expected goals, Young Africans are forecasted to score 3.15, while Kagera Sugar is expected to net just 0.51. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 71%, but both teams scoring is less probable at 38%. This suggests a dominant performance is anticipated from Young Africans in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Young Africans and Kagera Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Young Africans and Kagera Sugar attack and defence ratings
Young Africans
Kagera Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Young Africans | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.1% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Young Africans win | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Young Africans | 87.6% |
| Draw | 9.5% | |
| Kagera Sugar | 2.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.4% |
| No | 61.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 90.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 12.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Young Africans win | 71.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 12.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 13.5% |
| 2-0 | 12.8% | |
| 4-0 | 10.6% |
Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar stats
Young Africans and Kagera Sugar recent form
| Young Africans |
DWWLWW |
| Kagera Sugar |
LDWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Young Africans and Kagera Sugar season so far
Young Africans record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Kagera Sugar record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.