Polisi Tanzania
vs
Geita Gold
Garuda Lions Prediction: Polisi Tanzania
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold
| Probability | Polisi Tanzania | Draw | Geita Gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.9% | 16.4% | 8.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 74.9% | 16.4% | 8.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Polisi Tanzania
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.81.
Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold match preview
Polisi Tanzania faces Geita Gold in the Tanzania Premier League with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 75%. The expected goals for Polisi Tanzania stand at 2.59, while Geita Gold is projected to score only 0.81. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 11%.
Recent form indicates that Polisi Tanzania has struggled, recording two draws and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Geita Gold has experienced a challenging run, with four consecutive losses followed by a draw and a win. There is a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 52% chance of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold attack and defence ratings
Polisi Tanzania
Geita Gold
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polisi Tanzania | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polisi Tanzania | 74.9% |
| Draw | 16.4% | |
| Geita Gold | 8.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win | 54.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 25.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.2% |
| 3-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold stats
Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold recent form
| Polisi Tanzania |
DDLWLL |
| Geita Gold |
LLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold season so far
Polisi Tanzania record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Geita Gold record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.