Keçiörengücü
vs
Manisa F.K.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Keçiörengücü
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.41.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Keçiörengücü is the favourite, not a value bet.
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.
| Probability | Keçiörengücü | Draw | Manisa F.K. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 21.3% | 22.2% |
| Market | 56.5% | 22.6% | 21.0% |
| Final | 56.4% | 22.3% | 21.3% |
| Edge | -0.0% | -0.3% | +0.3% |
Why Keçiörengücü
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 56.4% × 1.67 − 1).
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. match preview
Keçiörengücü hosts Manisa F.K. in a match where the probabilities suggest a strong advantage for the home side, with a 58% chance of victory compared to 21% for Manisa F.K. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The model also indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 68%.
Recent form shows Keçiörengücü with mixed results, having recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Manisa F.K. has struggled significantly, with five consecutive matches without a win, resulting in four losses and one draw. The expected goals for Keçiörengücü stand at 2.35, while Manisa F.K. is at 1.38, further highlighting the disparity between the two teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K. expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K. attack and defence ratings
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 56.4% | 1.77 | -0.0% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 56.4% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Manisa F.K. | 21.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% |
| No | 31.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Keçiörengücü win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 3-1 | 7.0% |
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. stats
Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K. recent form
| Keçiörengücü |
LLWDWD |
| Manisa F.K. |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K. season so far
Keçiörengücü record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Manisa F.K. record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Keçiörengücü | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Manisa F.K. | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Manisa F.K. | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Keçiörengücü | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig | 4-0 |
| 2024-01-21 | Keçiörengücü | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-20 | Manisa F.K. | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-29 | Keçiörengücü | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig | 0-3 |
| 2022-12-04 | Manisa F.K. | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 0-0 |
| 2022-05-08 | Keçiörengücü | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig | 2-1 |
| 2021-12-14 | Manisa F.K. | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.5%, draw 22.6%, away 21.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.05 | 4.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.05 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.38 | 4.42 |
| SBO | 1.55 | 3.68 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .