Muğlaspor
vs
Esenler Erokspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Esenler Erokspor
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Esenler Erokspor is the favourite, not a value bet.
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor
| Probability | Muğlaspor | Draw | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.4% | 23.8% | 30.7% |
| Market | 27.6% | 26.7% | 45.7% |
| Final | 32.0% | 26.0% | 42.0% |
| Edge | +4.5% | -0.7% | -3.7% |
Why Esenler Erokspor
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.0% per unit staked (our 42.0% × 2.05 − 1).
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor match preview
Muğlaspor faces Esenler Erokspor in a match where the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. Muğlaspor has a 33% chance of winning, while Esenler Erokspor holds a 40% probability of victory, with a 27% likelihood for a draw. The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Muğlaspor at 1.92 compared to Esenler Erokspor's 1.56.
Recent form shows Muğlaspor with mixed results, recording one win in their last six matches (L-W-W-L-D-D), while Esenler Erokspor has been more consistent, winning three of their last six (W-L-W-D-W-L). The model forecasts a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Esenler Erokspor, with a high probability of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, both at 68%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor attack and defence ratings
Muğlaspor
Esenler Erokspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esenler Erokspor | 42.0% | 2.38 | -3.7% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Muğlaspor | 32.0% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Esenler Erokspor | 42.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Esenler Erokspor win | 15.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.7% | |
| Loss | 69.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor stats
Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor recent form
| Muğlaspor |
LWWLDD |
| Esenler Erokspor |
WLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor season so far
Muğlaspor record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Esenler Erokspor record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-21 | Muğlaspor | Esenler Erokspor | 3. Lig - Group 2 | 2-2 |
| 2017-08-26 | Esenler Erokspor | Muğlaspor | 3. Lig - Group 2 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.6%, draw 26.7%, away 45.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.40 | 3.34 | 1.95 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.03 |
| Marathonbet | 3.32 | 3.34 | 1.93 |
| Pinnacle | 3.64 | 3.69 | 1.98 |
| SBO | 2.95 | 3.07 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .