Esenler Erokspor
vs
Keçiörengücü
Garuda Lions Prediction: Keçiörengücü
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü
| Probability | Esenler Erokspor | Draw | Keçiörengücü |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 31.2% | 44.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.6% | 31.2% | 44.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Keçiörengücü
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü match preview
Esenler Erokspor faces Keçiörengücü in a 1. Lig matchup on October 30, 2026. According to our model, Esenler Erokspor has a 24% chance of winning, while Keçiörengücü is favored with a 44% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 13%. Expected goals suggest Esenler Erokspor will score 0.89, compared to Keçiörengücü's 1.29.
In terms of recent form, Esenler Erokspor has recorded a W-D-W-L-D-L streak, while Keçiörengücü shows a more consistent performance with W-D-W-D-D-W. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 44%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is at 37%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü attack and defence ratings
Esenler Erokspor
Keçiörengücü
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esenler Erokspor | 24.6% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Keçiörengücü | 44.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Keçiörengücü win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü stats
Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü recent form
| Esenler Erokspor |
WDWLDL |
| Keçiörengücü |
WDWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü season so far
Esenler Erokspor record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keçiörengücü record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Esenler Erokspor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Keçiörengücü | Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.