Bursaspor
vs
Bandırmaspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bursaspor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.84.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor
| Probability | Bursaspor | Draw | Bandırmaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 28.0% | 19.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.9% | 28.0% | 19.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bursaspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor match preview
Bursaspor enters this match against Bandırmaspor with a solid recent form, having won three of their last five matches, alongside a draw and a loss. Their expected goals for this fixture stand at 1.55, indicating a strong offensive capability. In contrast, Bandırmaspor has struggled recently, with two losses, two draws, and only one win in their last five games, leading to an expected goal tally of 0.84.
According to our model, Bursaspor holds a 53% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 28% and Bandırmaspor at 19%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Bursaspor, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% probability of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bursaspor and Bandırmaspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Bursaspor and Bandırmaspor attack and defence ratings
Bursaspor
Bandırmaspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 52.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Bandırmaspor | 19.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor stats
Bursaspor and Bandırmaspor recent form
| Bursaspor |
WWLWDW |
| Bandırmaspor |
LLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bursaspor and Bandırmaspor season so far
Bursaspor record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Bandırmaspor record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.