Keçiörengücü
vs
Bursaspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bursaspor
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bursaspor is the favourite, not a value bet.
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor
| Probability | Keçiörengücü | Draw | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 30.1% | 30.5% |
| Market | 27.3% | 27.2% | 45.5% |
| Final | 30.3% | 27.9% | 41.8% |
| Edge | +3.0% | +0.7% | -3.8% |
Why Bursaspor
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.0% per unit staked (our 41.8% × 2.06 − 1).
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor match preview
In the upcoming match between Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Bursaspor favored at 42%, while Keçiörengücü stands at 31% and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at an 8% probability. Expected goals suggest Keçiörengücü will score 1.43, while Bursaspor is projected to net 1.11.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Keçiörengücü recording three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Bursaspor has achieved four wins and one loss in the same timeframe. The model indicates a 47% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor attack and defence ratings
Keçiörengücü
Bursaspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 41.8% | 2.39 | -3.8% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 30.3% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Bursaspor | 41.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win | 12.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 69.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 0-0 | 10.3% |
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor stats
Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor recent form
| Keçiörengücü |
WDWDDW |
| Bursaspor |
WWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor season so far
Keçiörengücü record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bursaspor record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-02 | Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor | 1. Lig | 2-1 |
| 2021-11-01 | Bursaspor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 2-0 |
| 2021-05-09 | Bursaspor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 0-3 |
| 2021-01-02 | Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor | 1. Lig | 0-1 |
| 2020-06-20 | Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor | 1. Lig | 1-0 |
| 2019-11-23 | Bursaspor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.3%, draw 27.2%, away 45.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.40 | 3.24 | 1.99 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.32 | 3.24 | 1.97 |
| Pinnacle | 3.62 | 3.51 | 2.04 |
| SBO | 3.09 | 3.18 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .