Ümraniyespor
vs
Sivasspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ümraniyespor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor
| Probability | Ümraniyespor | Draw | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.3% | 31.3% | 33.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.3% | 31.3% | 33.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor match preview
Ümraniyespor faces Sivasspor in a closely matched encounter, with our model assigning probabilities of 35% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 33% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Ümraniyespor, occurring at an 11% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Ümraniyespor recording two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Sivasspor has secured two wins and four draws in the same period.
In terms of expected goals, Ümraniyespor is projected to score 1.15, while Sivasspor is slightly behind at 1.12. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and both teams scoring stands at 47%. Historically, the last two encounters between these teams have seen each side claim one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor attack and defence ratings
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ümraniyespor | 35.3% | 2.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.7% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ümraniyespor | 35.3% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| Sivasspor | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ümraniyespor win | 15.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 64.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.7% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor stats
Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor recent form
| Ümraniyespor |
DWLLLD |
| Sivasspor |
DDWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor season so far
Ümraniyespor record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sivasspor record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Sivasspor | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ümraniyespor | Sivasspor | 1. Lig | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.