Vanspor FK
vs
Ümraniyespor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vanspor FK
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor
| Probability | Vanspor FK | Draw | Ümraniyespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.5% | 30.0% | 33.4% |
| Market | 41.6% | 28.0% | 30.3% |
| Final | 40.4% | 28.5% | 31.1% |
| Edge | -5.1% | +2.0% | +3.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor match preview
Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor are set to face off in a closely contested match, with our model assigning a 37% probability of a Vanspor FK victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 33% likelihood of an Ümraniyespor win. The expected goals for Vanspor FK stand at 1.25, while Ümraniyespor is slightly behind with 1.18. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Vanspor FK, with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Vanspor FK has recorded one win and five matches without a victory, while Ümraniyespor has managed one win in their last six games. The likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 51%, and there is a 44% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor attack and defence ratings
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vanspor FK | 40.4% | 2.48 | -5.1% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vanspor FK | 40.4% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Ümraniyespor | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vanspor FK win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 63.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.1% | |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor stats
Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor recent form
| Vanspor FK |
WLLDDL |
| Ümraniyespor |
DWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor season so far
Vanspor FK record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ümraniyespor record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Ümraniyespor | Vanspor FK | 1. Lig | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-14 | Vanspor FK | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig | 0-1 |
| 2012-03-25 | Ümraniyespor | Vanspor FK | 3. Lig - Group 1 | 2-1 |
| 2011-12-22 | Vanspor FK | Ümraniyespor | 3. Lig - Group 1 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.7%, draw 28.0%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.24 | 2.98 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.24 | 2.91 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.47 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .