Garuda Lions
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1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 9

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer

1 – 1 Full time

Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, IstanbulReferee: Erdem Mertoglu

Ümraniyespor 35%
Draw 30%
Sarıyer 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityÜmraniyesporDrawSarıyer
Model29.3%33.3%37.4%
Market37.0%29.0%34.0%
Final35.1%30.1%34.9%
Edge-7.7%+4.3%+3.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ümraniyespor ↓ / Sarıyer → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 13% 8% 1 11% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 15%

Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer expected goals

Ümraniyespor 0.93
Sarıyer 1.08

Total expected goals: 2.01

Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer attack and defence ratings

Ümraniyespor

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Sarıyer

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer: result vs prediction

Ümraniyespor 1 – 1 Sarıyer

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ümraniyespor 35.1% 2.85 -7.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.9% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.7% 1.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ümraniyespor35.1%
Draw30.1%
Sarıyer34.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%
Both teams to scoreYes41.2%
No58.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.1%
12 (either side)69.9%
X2 (draw or away)64.9%
Handicap -1Ümraniyespor win10.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss70.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.8%
0-014.8%
0-113.2%

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer stats

Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer recent form

newest first
Ümraniyespor WLLLDD
Sarıyer WDLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ümraniyespor record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sarıyer record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

3Ümraniyespor wins 0Draws 1Sarıyer wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-06SarıyerÜmraniyespor1. Lig1-2
2025-10-17ÜmraniyesporSarıyer1. Lig1-3
2016-03-11ÜmraniyesporSarıyer2. Lig1-0
2015-10-30SarıyerÜmraniyespor2. Lig0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 29.0%, away 34.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.42 3.12 2.60
Bet365 2.45 3.10 2.60
BetVictor 2.50 3.13 2.70
Betano 2.55 3.15 2.70
Betfair 2.40 3.25 2.63
Dafabet 2.55 3.25 2.70
Marathonbet 2.42 3.12 2.60
Pinnacle 2.56 3.40 2.75
SBO 2.37 2.94 2.57
William Hill 2.45 3.10 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▲ +0.10
X 3.12 ▼ -0.15
2 2.67 ▼ -0.11

14 snapshots recorded, from .