Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Muğlaspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fatih Karagümrük
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor
| Probability | Fatih Karagümrük | Draw | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 30.8% | 25.9% |
| Market | 52.8% | 26.2% | 21.1% |
| Final | 50.4% | 27.3% | 22.3% |
| Edge | -9.5% | +4.6% | +4.9% |
Why Fatih Karagümrük
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.95.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor match preview
Fatih Karagümrük faces Muğlaspor in a match where the model gives Karagümrük a 43% chance of winning, while Muğlaspor has a 26% probability of securing victory. The likelihood of a draw stands at 31%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Fatih Karagümrük, with a 12% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest that Fatih Karagümrük will score around 1.30, compared to Muğlaspor's 0.95.
In terms of recent form, Fatih Karagümrük has recorded a win, followed by two draws and a loss, while Muğlaspor has drawn three of their last five matches, alongside two wins. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 39%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 46%. The confidence grade for these probabilities is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor attack and defence ratings
Fatih Karagümrük
Muğlaspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 50.4% | 1.98 | -9.5% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 50.4% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Muğlaspor | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fatih Karagümrük win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor stats
Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor recent form
| Fatih Karagümrük |
WDLDDW |
| Muğlaspor |
DDDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor season so far
Fatih Karagümrük record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Muğlaspor record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 26.2%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.48 | 4.24 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.50 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.48 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.61 | 4.40 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.22 | 3.86 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .