Garuda Lions
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1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 9

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor

1 – 1 Full time

11′Yiğit Fidan
31′Emre Akbaba
33′Ahmed Traore
44′Mamady·Diarra
45′Yasin Uzunoglu
53′Çağtay Kurukalıp
57′Jurgen Çelhaka
63′Jurgen ÇelhakaDaniel Avramovski
64′Poyraz YildirimDriton Camaj
64′Yiğit FidanIbrahim Sissoko
71′Manolis SiopisBaris Kalayci
71′Ramazan CivelekCandan Baskale
74′Luis Mago
82′Cenk TosunTiago Cukur
82′Yaya OnogoRobin Yalçın
85′Ali Kaan Gunerenİ. Furat
85′Mamady·DiarraKorede Osundina
90′Ahmed TraoreJ. Esen

Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, IstanbulReferee: Ali Yilmaz

Fatih Karagümrük 50%
Draw 27%
Muğlaspor 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 6
46 Possession % 54
2 Corners 10
12 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 0
5 Saves 1
273 Accurate passes 318

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFatih KaragümrükDrawMuğlaspor
Model43.1%30.8%26.1%
Market52.8%26.1%21.0%
Final50.4%27.3%22.3%
Edge-2.4%+1.2%+1.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Fatih Karagümrük

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.95.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fatih Karagümr ↓ / Muğlaspor → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 9% 1 12% 14% 2 9% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor expected goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1.30
Muğlaspor 0.95

Total expected goals: 2.25

Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor attack and defence ratings

Fatih Karagümrük

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Muğlaspor

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor: result vs prediction

Fatih Karagümrük 1 – 1 Muğlaspor

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fatih Karagümrük 50.4% 1.98 -2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.8% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score No 54.0% 1.85 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.7% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.9% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fatih Karagümrük50.4%
Draw27.3%
Muğlaspor22.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.2%
Under 2.560.8%
Both teams to scoreYes46.0%
No54.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.7%
12 (either side)72.7%
X2 (draw or away)49.6%
Handicap -1Fatih Karagümrük win20.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.7%
Loss56.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.3%
1-012.3%
0-011.8%

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor stats

Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor recent form

newest first
Fatih Karagümrük WDLDDW
Muğlaspor DDDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor going into this match

league record before kick-off

Fatih Karagümrük record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.

Muğlaspor record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 26.1%, away 21.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.72 3.48 4.24
Bet365 1.70 3.30 4.50
BetVictor 1.73 3.50 4.33
Betano 1.78 3.50 4.35
Betfair 1.70 3.50 4.33
Dafabet 1.78 3.60 4.40
Marathonbet 1.70 3.48 4.15
Pinnacle 1.79 3.61 4.48
SBO 1.67 3.22 3.86
William Hill 1.75 3.40 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▼ -0.02
X 3.49 ▼ -0.11
2 4.33 ▲ +0.04

13 snapshots recorded, from .