Muğlaspor
vs
Bursaspor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bursaspor
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor
| Probability | Muğlaspor | Draw | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 30.3% | 37.1% |
| Market | 23.8% | 27.1% | 49.1% |
| Final | 26.0% | 27.9% | 46.1% |
| Edge | +8.8% | +3.2% | -12.0% |
Why Bursaspor
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor match preview
Muğlaspor will face Bursaspor in a 1. Lig match on October 15, 2026. According to our model, Muğlaspor has a 26% chance of winning, while Bursaspor is favored with a 46% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.15 for Muğlaspor and 1.24 for Bursaspor.
In terms of recent form, Muğlaspor has recorded three draws, two wins, and one loss in their last six matches, while Bursaspor has been more consistent with four wins, one draw, and one loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 43%, and there is a 50% chance that both teams will score in this encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Muğlaspor and Bursaspor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Muğlaspor and Bursaspor attack and defence ratings
Muğlaspor
Bursaspor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
Before and after this match
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 46.1% | 2.17 | -12.0% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Muğlaspor | 26.0% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Bursaspor | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 62.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-1 | 10.1% |
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor stats
Muğlaspor and Bursaspor recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Muğlaspor and Bursaspor season so far
Muğlaspor record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bursaspor record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.8%, draw 27.1%, away 49.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.88 | 3.40 | 1.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .