Bursaspor
vs
Mardin 1969
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bursaspor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
| Probability | Bursaspor | Draw | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.8% | 29.5% | 19.7% |
| Market | 54.9% | 25.2% | 19.9% |
| Final | 53.9% | 26.3% | 19.8% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +4.3% | -0.1% |
Why Bursaspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 match preview
Bursaspor is set to host Mardin 1969 in a 1. Lig matchup on October 11, 2026. The model gives Bursaspor a 51% chance of winning, while Mardin 1969 has a 20% probability of securing a victory, with a 30% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Bursaspor stand at 1.43, compared to 0.80 for Mardin 1969, indicating a potential edge for the home team.
In terms of recent form, Bursaspor has recorded four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Mardin 1969 has two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same period. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Bursaspor, with a 14% probability. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bursaspor and Mardin 1969 expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Bursaspor and Mardin 1969 attack and defence ratings
Bursaspor
Mardin 1969
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sivasspor vs Pendikspor — team news & stats
- Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer — team news & stats
- Vanspor FK vs Bandırmaspor
- Boluspor v Antalyaspor — match page
- Iğdır FK v Batman Petrolspor — match page
- Kayserispor v Manisa F.K. — match page
- İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 53.9% | 1.86 | -4.1% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bursaspor | 53.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Mardin 1969 | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.1% |
| No | 56.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 stats
Bursaspor and Mardin 1969 recent form
| Bursaspor |
WDWWWL |
| Mardin 1969 |
LLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bursaspor and Mardin 1969 season so far
Bursaspor record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mardin 1969 record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 25.2%, away 19.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.62 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.55 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.62 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.79 | 4.81 |
| SBO | 1.64 | 3.26 | 3.96 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .