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1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 10

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük

1 – 0 Full time

10′Zdravko Dimitrov
18′Adem Eren Kabak
31′Kerim AlıcıEray Korkmaz
38′Tonio Teklić
55′Tonio TeklićŞahverdi Çetin
55′Mallik WilksEmre Taşdemir
65′Ramazan CivelekJ. Esen
65′Baris KalayciTiago Cukur
72′Đorđe DenićO. Yıldırım
73′Olarenwaju KayodeBerkay Dogan
80′Manolis SiopisMarius Tresor Doh
84′Yaya OnogoTarık Buğra Kalpaklı
90′Anil Cinar
90′Emre Taşdemir

21 Kasım Stadium, MardinReferee: Burak Olcar

Mardin 1969 45%
Draw 28%
Fatih Karagümrük 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 14
1 Shots on target 2
32 Possession % 68
5 Corners 4
11 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
3 Saves 0
185 Accurate passes 489

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMardin 1969DrawFatih Karagümrük
Model44.9%31.8%23.3%
Market45.7%27.3%27.0%
Final45.5%28.5%26.0%
Edge-0.2%+1.1%-0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Mardin 1969

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mardin 1969 ↓ / Fatih Karagümr → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 9% 1 14% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 63%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük expected goals

Mardin 1969 1.25
Fatih Karagümrük 0.83

Total expected goals: 2.08

Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük attack and defence ratings

Mardin 1969

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Fatih Karagümrük

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük: result vs prediction

Mardin 1969 1 – 0 Fatih Karagümrük

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mardin 1969 45.5% 2.20 -0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 65.6% 1.53 — —
Both teams to score No 58.5% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.1% 1.82 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mardin 196945.5%
Draw28.5%
Fatih Karagümrük26.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534.4%
Under 2.565.6%
Both teams to scoreYes41.5%
No58.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.0%
12 (either side)71.5%
X2 (draw or away)54.5%
Handicap -1Mardin 1969 win20.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss55.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.4%
1-114.2%
0-013.8%

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük stats

Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük recent form

newest first
Mardin 1969 WLLWDD
Fatih Karagümrük DWDLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük going into this match

league record before kick-off

Mardin 1969 record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

Fatih Karagümrük record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.7%, draw 27.3%, away 27.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.94 3.34 3.43
Bet365 1.95 3.25 3.50
BetVictor 2.05 3.30 3.30
Betano 2.07 3.30 3.35
Betfair 1.95 3.30 3.30
Dafabet 2.07 3.40 3.40
Marathonbet 1.92 3.34 3.35
Pinnacle 2.12 3.58 3.34
SBO 1.90 3.06 3.13
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.98 ▼ -0.57
X 3.30 ▼ -0.05
2 3.34 ▲ +0.85

13 snapshots recorded, from .