Mardin 1969
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mardin 1969
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
| Probability | Mardin 1969 | Draw | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Market | 35.9% | 27.3% | 36.8% |
| Final | 37.6% | 28.7% | 33.7% |
| Edge | +6.8% | +5.3% | -12.1% |
Why Mardin 1969
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.84.
- The market prices Mardin 1969 below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük match preview
Mardin 1969 faces Fatih Karagümrük in a match where the model gives Mardin a 43% chance of victory, while a draw is estimated at 33% and Fatih Karagümrük at 25%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Mardin, with a 14% probability. Expected goals for Mardin are at 1.19 and for Fatih Karagümrük at 0.84, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Mardin 1969 with a record of L-L-W-D-D-W, while Fatih Karagümrük has W-D-L-D-D-W. The model suggests a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük attack and defence ratings
Mardin 1969
Fatih Karagümrük
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK — team news & stats
- Pendikspor v Vanspor FK — match page
- Batman Petrolspor v İstanbulspor — match page
- Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
- Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats
- Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK — team news & stats
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mardin 1969 | 37.6% | 2.66 | +6.8% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mardin 1969 | 37.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 33.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.7% |
| No | 59.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mardin 1969 win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 57.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.5% |
| 1-1 | 14.4% | |
| 1-0 | 14.4% |
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük stats
Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük recent form
| Mardin 1969 |
LLWDDW |
| Fatih Karagümrük |
WDLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük season so far
Mardin 1969 record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Fatih Karagümrük record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 27.3%, away 36.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.49 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .