Esenler Erokspor
vs
Mardin 1969
Garuda Lions Prediction: Esenler Erokspor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
| Probability | Esenler Erokspor | Draw | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 38.2% | 39.6% |
| Market | 47.1% | 27.7% | 25.2% |
| Final | 40.9% | 30.3% | 28.8% |
| Edge | -24.9% | +10.6% | +14.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 match preview
Esenler Erokspor faces Mardin 1969 in a 1. Lig matchup with kickoff set for October 19, 2026. According to our model, Esenler Erokspor has a 40% chance of winning, while Mardin 1969 holds a 29% probability, with a 30% likelihood of a draw. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Esenler Erokspor, occurring with a 12% chance.
In terms of expected goals, Esenler Erokspor is projected to score 0.65, compared to Mardin 1969's 0.93. Recent form shows Esenler Erokspor with one win in their last six matches (W-L-D-L-D-L), while Mardin 1969 has two wins in their last six (W-L-L-W-D-D). The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969 expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.52
Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969 attack and defence ratings
Esenler Erokspor
Mardin 1969
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esenler Erokspor | 40.9% | 2.45 | -24.9% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esenler Erokspor | 40.9% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Mardin 1969 | 28.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 80.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.6% |
| No | 71.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Esenler Erokspor win | 6.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 77.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.0% |
| 0-1 | 18.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 stats
Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969 recent form
| Esenler Erokspor |
DWLDLD |
| Mardin 1969 |
WWLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969 season so far
Esenler Erokspor record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mardin 1969 record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 27.6%, away 25.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.26 | 3.59 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.26 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.39 | 3.72 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .